Triangle Sustainability Blog

In a recent post, I reviewed some research that shows that our current atmospheric carbon concentrations are now at a level not seen for around 15 million years. That’s bad news.

But there’s some good news, too. A recent report from the International Energy Agency spells out a strategy for stabilizing carbon atmospheric concentrations, perhaps in more detail than has been specified before.

For the IEA, keeping carbon concentrations at our below 450 ppm is the key, since that’s the level they believe will minimize the effects of global warming. Hence they call getting to that goal the “450 scenario.”

Achieving the 450 scenario, according to the IEA, requires pursuing a variety of different carbon abatement measures. These measures include pursuing greater energy efficiencies, renewable energy, biofuels, nuclear power and carbon capture and storage (see figure).

World energy-related CO2 emissions abatement (source: IEA)

Based on the IEA’s handy graph and table, we can see that they believe end-use energy efficiency to be the greatest slice of the carbon-abatement pie. And within that category fall lots of measures that we each can take to boost our personal energy efficiency – better insulation, building sealing, replacing incandescent light bulbs, driving a car with better mileage, etc.

This serves as a nice reminder that it’s easy for each of us to take energy-savings steps today, rather than waiting for various forms of renewable energy to become more affordable. So what are you going to do to boost your own efficiency?

I always wanted to travel back in time. Growing up watching movies like Back to the Future and Bill and Ted’s Excellent Adventure, who wouldn’t want to?

Now, it seems we are going back, very far indeed. Some recent research has noted that the earth’s carbon dioxide levels have climbed to levels not seen for 15 million years. Here’s an excerpt from the press release:

“The last time carbon dioxide levels were apparently as high as they are today — and were sustained at those levels — global temperatures were 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit higher than they are today, the sea level was approximately 75 to 120 feet higher than today, there was no permanent sea ice cap in the Arctic and very little ice on Antarctica and Greenland,” said the paper’s lead author, Aradhna Tripati, a UCLA assistant professor in the department of Earth and space sciences and the department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences.

This isn’t quite the kind of time travel I had envisioned in my childhood, it doesn’t involve meeting cool historical figures like Abraham Lincoln or observing my parents as kids. Unfortunately, this type of time travel will mean rising sea levels, drought and famine that will damage ecosystems and affect millions of people.

During the time period around 14 to 20 million years ago that Dr. Tripati and his colleagues studied, atmospheric carbon concentrations where at about 400 parts per million. That’s approximately where those levels are today, but some estimates show those levels rising as high as 600 or even 900 parts per million in the next century if immediate action isn’t taken.

This serves, to me at least, as a striking reminder of the risks of not significantly reducing global greenhouse gas emissions and continuing to burn fossil fuels in spades. Unless, of course, we want to see what things were like when dinosaurs ruled the earth.